非精确概率下基于证据理论的典型系统可靠性模型

被引：6

作者：

锁斌

程永生

曾超

李军

机构：

[1] 中国工程物理研究院电子工程研究所

来源：

系统仿真学报 | 2013年 / 25卷 / 02期

关键词：

可靠性; 不确定性; 非精确概率; 证据理论;

D O I：

10.16182/j.cnki.joss.2013.02.003

中图分类号：

TB114.3 [可靠性理论];

学科分类号：

1201 ;

摘要：

当系统的各个单元的失效概率为不精确概率时,传统的概率方法难以使用,而区间分析法等非概率方法得到的结果则比较粗糙。基于证据理论,建立了非精确概率下串联、并联、串并混联、k-out-of-n等典型系统的可靠性模型,利用信任函数和似然函数、根据证据推理,将单元可靠性中的不确定性传递到顶层系统,从而得出系统失效概率和可靠度的概率分布的上下界。实例分析表明,提出的方法能较好的处理可靠性计算中的不精确信息,且比区间分析法得到的有效信息更多。

引用

页码：317 / 321

页数：5

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