旅游需求预测方法与模型评述

被引:8
作者
殷书炉
杨立勋
机构
[1] 西北师范大学经济管理学院
关键词
旅游需求; 预测模型; 发展趋势;
D O I
10.13749/j.cnki.cn62-1202/g4.2008.03.005
中图分类号
F224.9 [经济数学方法的应用];
学科分类号
摘要
对旅游需求预测研究始于上世纪60年代,绝大多数研究成果出现于80年代以后,然而对此类研究进行整理和述评的论文较少。因此,文章系统论述了各种方法与模型在旅游需求预测中的应用,并对其预测效果做了简略评价,同时指出了将来的研究重点和发展趋势。
引用
收藏
页码:42 / 45
页数:4
相关论文
共 10 条
  • [1] 旅游客源预测模型及其对比
    朱晓华
    杨秀春
    [J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2004, (05) : 84 - 86+94
  • [2] Can Seasonal Unit Root Testing Improve the Forecasting Accuracy of Tourist Arrivals?[J] . Dillon Alleyne.Tourism Economics . 2006 (1)
  • [3] Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles[J] . Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia,Paulo M.M. Rodrigues.Tourism Economics . 2005 (4)
  • [4] A Selection Strategy for Modelling UK Tourism Flows by Air to European Destinations[J] . John Trevor Coshall.Tourism Economics . 2005 (2)
  • [5] Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: the Taiwan case[J] . Jen-Hung Huang,Jennifer C.H. Min.Tourism Management . 2002 (2)
  • [6] Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention
    Goh, C
    Law, R
    [J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT, 2002, 23 (05) : 499 - 510
  • [7] Categorical classification of tourism dining
    Au, N
    Law, R
    [J]. ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH, 2002, 29 (03) : 819 - 833
  • [8] Factors Influencing Demand for International Tourism: Tourism Demand Analysis Using Structural Equation Modelling, Revisited[J] . Lindsay W. Turner,Stephen F. Witt.Tourism Economics . 2001 (1)
  • [9] Modelling Business Travel[J] . Nada Kulendran,Kenneth Wilson.Tourism Economics . 2000 (1)
  • [10] A neural network model to forecast Japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong
    Law, R
    Au, N
    [J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT, 1999, 20 (01) : 89 - 97