The slip rate and strong earthquake recurrence interval on the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone

The geometry of the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone is quite complex, and it is composed of four secondary-faults, i.e., the Yalahe fault, Selaha-Kangding fault, Zeduotang fault and Moxi fault. On this segment, three strong earthquakes with M(7.0 occurred in 1725, 1786 and 1955, respectively. Based on a study of fault landform and geochronology (14C and Thermoluminesense), this paper documents the average horizontal slip rates during the late-Quaternary on all the secondary-faults of the Qianning-Kangding segment as follows: Yalahe fault: (2.0(0.2) mm/a; Selaha-Kangding fault: (5.5(0.6) mm/a; Zeduotang fault: (3.6(0.3) mm/a; Moxi fault: (9.9(0.6) mm/a. The results from the investigation of surface ruptures of historical earthquakes, coseismic-slip and paleo-earthquakes show that the strong-earthquake recurrence intervals are thousands of years on the Yalahe fault, and 230 to 350 years on the Selaha-Kangding and Zeduotang faults. In the next one hundred years, the recurrence of a strong-earthquake on these faults appears impossible. However, the strong-earthquake recurrence interval on the Moxi fault is about 300 years. Up to now, it has been 214 years since the last earthquake (magnitude 7) occurred in 1786, therefore, this fault is now approaching the condition favorable for the next strong earthquake recurrence.