气候变化对长江中下游稻区水稻产量的影响

被引：167

作者：

杨沈斌 ^{[1
]}

申双和 ^{[1
]}

赵小艳 ^{[1
]}

赵艳霞 ^{[2
]}

许吟隆 ^{[3
]}

王主玉 ^{[1
]}

刘娟 ^{[1
]}

张玮玮 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院

[2] 中国气象科学研究院

[3] 中国农业科学院农业环境和可持续发展研究所

来源：

作物学报 | 2010年 / 36卷 / 09期

关键词：

长江中下游稻区; 气候变化; 水稻; ORYZA2000;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

S511 [稻];

学科分类号：

090104 [作物信息科学与技术];

摘要：

选择长江中下游平原作为研究区域,按照政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,将基于区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与水稻生长模型ORYZA2000结合,模拟基准时段(1961—1990)气候(Baseline)和2021—2050时段A2、B2情景下的水稻产量,分析未来气候变化对长江中下游水稻产量的影响。构建两种影响评估方法,重点分析增温和大气CO2肥效作用对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,不考虑CO2肥效作用时,随着温度升高,水稻生育期缩短,产量下降。A2情景下水稻生育期平均缩短4.5d,产量减少15.2%;B2情景下平均缩短3.4d,产量减少15%。其中,减产达到20%以上的区域集中在安徽中南部、湖北东南部和湖南东部地区。当考虑CO2肥效作用后,A2情景下水稻平均产量减少5.1%,B2情景平均减少5.8%。减产区域缩小且幅度降低,江西和浙江部分地区则呈现一定程度增产,但增幅<10%。大气CO2肥效作用一定程度上可提高水稻产量,使晚稻在增温的不利影响下仍呈现不同程度的增产态势,但对单季稻和早稻的增产贡献仍不足以抵消升温的负面影响。另外,大气CO2肥效作用可有利于提高未来气候变化下水稻的稳产性。

引用

页码：1519 / 1528

页数：10

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