南通地区小麦赤霉病发生潜势气象预报模型的建立及检验

被引：8

作者：

徐云 ^{[1
]}

陈爱玉 ^{[1
]}

洪冠中 ^{[2
]}

吴彩霞 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 江苏省南通市气象局

[2] 广东省清远市气象局

来源：

江苏农业科学 | 2013年 / 41卷 / 08期

关键词：

小麦赤霉病; 气象指标; 判别分析;

D O I：

10.15889/j.issn.1002-1302.2013.08.084

中图分类号：

S435.121.4 [侵（传）染性病害];

学科分类号：

090401 ; 090402 ;

摘要：

利用1975—2011年江苏省南通市小麦赤霉病测报资料和同期气象资料,通过因子筛选寻找南通地区小麦赤霉病发生流行的气象指标,采取判别分析法建立小麦赤霉病发生潜势气象预报模型预测小麦赤霉病的发生趋势。结果表明,31年的回代检验正确率为80.6%,6年的模拟预报准确率为83.3%,模型的历史拟合率和试报效果均较好,判别函数可信,可投入实际业务应用。

引用

页码：144 / 145

页数：2

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