A Statistical Model for Investigating Climatic Trend Turning Points

被引：8

作者：

丁裕国

屠其璞

温敏

机构：

[1] Nanjing 210044

[2] Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

来源：

AdvancesinAtmosphericSciences | 1995年 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Climatic change; Climatic trend turning point; Statistical model;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P461 [气候的形成和影响气候的因素];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method.

引用

页码：47 / 56

页数：10