杭州西湖富营养化模型的不确定性分析

被引:6
作者
裴洪平
汪勇
机构
[1] 浙江大学西溪校区环境科学系
[2] 浙江省环境工程公司 浙江 杭州
[3] 浙江 杭州
关键词
不确定性分析; 富营养化模型; MonteCarlo方法; 杭州西湖;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
X524 [湖泊、水库];
学科分类号
摘要
运用结合了灵敏度分析的Monte Carlo方法对西湖富营养化生态模型不确定性进行了定量分析。通过模型不确定性分析,为管理决策者提供了有价值的信息,包括模型输出值的统计分布信息以及各种管理策略和整治措施所能实现目标的可能性方面的信息。根据这些信息,管理者可以客观评价并选择合适的管理策略和整治措施,在可接受的风险水平上进行决策。
引用
收藏
页码:117 / 122
页数:6
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