秋-冬季节北极海冰对冬季西伯利亚高压的影响

被引：56

作者：

武炳义

苏京志

张人禾

机构：

[1] 中国气象科学研究院

来源：

科学通报 | 2011年 / 56卷 / 27期

关键词：

北极海冰; 西伯利亚高压; 东亚气候; 严冬频发;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P461.2 [];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

冬季西伯利亚高压强度与前期秋到冬季北冰洋东部、欧亚大陆北部边缘海区海冰密集度呈现显著的负相关关系.研究结果显示,秋冬季北冰洋海冰密集度与同期海表温度异常可导致冬季西伯利亚高压与欧亚大陆中高纬度及东亚的地表气温异常.数值试验结果进一步证实该结论,并且所有的数值试验结果一致表明,较低的海冰密集度能导致欧亚大陆中高纬度地表温度负异常.本文提出了一种机制来解释秋冬季北极海冰密集度和冬季西伯利亚高压的联系.9月份海冰密集度为预测冬季西伯利亚高压提供了一个潜在的前期信号,而若由单纯的热带海温异常则不能预测冬季西伯利亚高压强度.在近20年来(1990～2009年)冬季西伯利亚高压呈现增强的趋势,并伴随着亚洲大陆中高纬度地表温度的降温趋势,从而导致近年来东亚严冬频发.最后,讨论了冬季西伯利亚高压和地表气温短期趋势的成因.

引用

页码：2335 / 2343

页数：9

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