月度用电量灰色预测改进模型

被引：6

作者：

詹卫许 ^{[1
]}

钱淑钗 ^{[2
]}

印鉴 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 中国南方电网有限责任公司

[2] 中山大学信息科学与技术学院

来源：

基金：

广州市科技计划项目;

关键词：

灰色预测; 季节指数; 残差修正; 月度用电量;

D O I：

10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2012.05.022

中图分类号：

TM715 [电力系统规划];

学科分类号：

摘要：

灰色模型是年度电量预测的有效方法。引入季节指数平滑法改进灰色模型,使其更适合具有季节周期性的月度用电量预测;并提出了一种基于马尔科夫过程的残差修正法,以提高月度电量预测的准确率。最后,以某市月度用电量进行实际预测为例,通过与其他模型的比较,验证了改进模型在月度用电量预测中的有效性。

引用

页码：92 / 96

页数：5

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