杨小舟蛾短期预测预报研究

This paper deals with the bionomics of Micromelopha troglodyta .The pest has 2 generations a year and overwinters in pupa in the fallen leaves.In the food lack condition,the last instar larvae is compelled to pupate in advance,the mass of the pupa is much lighter than that of normal pupa.If the mass of the pupa is below 90 mg,it can not emerge.The mathematical model between the probability of the female and the pupa mass is Y i =-6.22+3.256 log X i .The mathematical model between amount of the female eggs and the pupa mass is Y i′ =-1 886.3+1 014.4 log X i .Applying these mathematical models,we can forecast the population dynamics of M.troglodyta.