汶川县地震滑坡易发性LR与NN评价比较研究

被引：16

作者：

文海家 ^{[1
,2
]}

胡东萍 ^{[1
,2
]}

王桂林 ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] 重庆大学土木工程学院

[2] 重庆大学山地城镇建设新技术教育部重点实验室

来源：

土木工程学报 | 2014年 / 47(S1)卷 / S1期

关键词：

地震滑坡; 神经网络模型; 逻辑回归模型; 易发性分区;

D O I：

10.15951/j.tmgcxb.2014.s1.004

中图分类号：

P642.22 [滑坡];

学科分类号：

0837 ;

摘要：

通过地理信息系统(GIS)技术,结合神经网络(NN)和逻辑回归模型(LR)开展汶川县范围内地震诱发滑坡易感性评价,并对两种模型结果进行比较研究。基于2008年5.12 Ms8.0级地震,选取高程、坡度、坡位、坡向、岩性、微地貌、距断层距离、距水系距离、距道路距离、年平均降雨量、归一化植被指数、地震峰值加速度共12个因子作为地震滑坡影响因子,基于ARCGIS10.1平台将这些影响因子专题图层栅格化;采用提取的模型训练样本,由R软件对神经网络(NN)和逻辑回归模型(LR)进行训练;将训练好的模型对整个汶川县地震滑坡易感性进行仿真,并将仿真结果划分为五类滑坡敏感区域:极低,低,中,高和极高,分别得到LR与NN模型仿真的滑坡易发性分区图;根据汶川县实际地震滑坡分布图进行统计分析,以及采用ROC曲线对两种模型的仿真结果进行对比分析,神经网络(NN)和逻辑回归模型(LR)的AUC值分别为0.930和0.941。研究表明两种模型的滑坡易感性评价图与实际滑坡发育基本吻合,评价结果较好,且LR模型预测精度相对较高。

引用

页码：17 / 23

页数：7

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