大气甲烷浓度变化的源汇因素模拟研究进展

被引：6

作者：

鲁易 ^{[1
,2
]}

张稳 ^{[2
]}

李婷婷 ^{[2
]}

周筠珺 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院

[2] 大气边界层物理与大气化学国家重点实验室中国科学院大气物理研究所

来源：

地球科学进展 | 2015年 / 30卷 / 07期

关键词：

甲烷; 模式; 反向模拟; 源汇; 不确定性;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P402 [大气化学];

学科分类号：

070602 ;

摘要：

从甲烷大气化学过程、传输模式和反向模拟机理等方面综述了大气甲烷浓度变化及其源汇研究的主要进展及存在的问题。基于数据同化算法的反向模拟能有效降低全球及国家尺度甲烷排放估计的不确定性。但在具体的算法实施中,先验的甲烷排放估计和地面站大气甲烷浓度测定的不确定性量化仍然主要是经验性的,缺乏严格和系统性的量化算法。相对于有限的地面站测定,基于卫星平台的大气甲烷浓度变化监测数据极大地提高了数据的空间覆盖度,进一步促进了反向模拟的应用。当前的反向模拟研究在全球尺度上确认了自然湿地甲烷排放对大气甲烷浓度年际波动的决定性作用;在国家尺度上,反向模拟在国家温室气体清单的"可核查"方面也有广泛的应用前景。

引用

页码：763 / 772

页数：10

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