短期风速的Adaboost_GRNN组合预测模型

被引:25
作者
芦婧 [1 ,2 ]
曾明 [2 ]
机构
[1] 太原工业学院自动化系
[2] 天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院
基金
天津市科技支撑计划;
关键词
风电场; 短期风速预测; Adaboost算法; 广义回归神经网络; 组合预测模型;
D O I
10.19635/j.cnki.csu-epsa.000198
中图分类号
TM614 [风能发电];
学科分类号
080811 [新能源发电与电能存储];
摘要
对风电场风速进行准确预测对于风能的开发利用具有重要意义。为了克服单一预测方法的局限性并进一步提高预测精度,提出了基于Adaboost算法和广义回归神经网络的短期风速组合预测方法。首先,分别采用时间序列法、支持向量机法和神经网络法建立3种风速预测模型;其次,采用广义回归神经网络将这3种单一模型的预测值进行非线性组合;最后,利用Adaboost算法集成多个广义回归神经网络的输出并将其作为高精度的风速预测值。算例测试结果表明,所提组合方法的预测精度高于各个单一模型以及熵权法组合模型和广义回归神经网络组合模型的预测精度。
引用
收藏
页码:70 / 76
页数:7
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