北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化预报系统性能检验和评估

被引：72

作者：

范水勇

陈敏

仲跻芹

郑祚芳

机构：

[1] 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所

来源：

暴雨灾害 | 2009年 / 28卷 / 02期

关键词：

BJ-RUC系统; 客观检验; 3km分辨率; 9km分辨率;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P456.7 [数值预报方法];

学科分类号：

摘要：

为充分了解北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化预报系统(简称BJ-RUC)的业务预报性能,对该系统在2007年汛期的预报结果采用客观检验方法进行了检验和评估,并针对典型个例进行分析,得到如下结论:BJ-RUC系统预报性能稳定,具有较好的预报参考价值;常规预报量的检验表明,3km分辨率的预报无论是高空还是地面预报量都要优于9km的预报;降水预报检验表明,3km分辨率无论是降水时段、落区和雨量均较9km分辨率有更好的预报效果,尤其是大量级降水的预报。但BJ-RUC系统对局地对流降水的预报能力仍然有限,在前6h的预报仍然差于后面时段的预报。

引用

页码：119 / 125

页数：7

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