The future thermal regime of numerical simulating permafrost on Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, China, under climate warming

Numerical simulation indicates that the future thermal regime of permafrost on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau will change as the air temperature continuously rises at 0.04℃/a. The calculated results show that when Ts are 0, -0.5, -1.5, -2.5, -3.5 and - 4.5℃ under equilibium between climate and permafrost thermal regime, the mean annual temperatures at the depth of 14 m correspondingly equal to -0.11, -0.59, -1.52, -2.45, -3.21 and -4.32℃, and the permafrost thicknesses respectively equal to 16.8, 29.0, 54.1, 79.4, 112.1 and 131.0m. 50 years later, the temperatures at the depth of 14m will rises to 0.0, 0.0, -0.36, -1.23, -2.16, -3.06℃ under the given condition. When TS is lower than -1.1℃, the permafrost will respectively change from initial 2.0, 1.8, 1.6, 1.4m to 2.2, 2.0, 1.8, 1.6m for TS=-1.5, -2.5. - 3.5 and -4.5℃. If TS is higher than - 1.1℃, the frozen ground will change from the attachment type of frozen ground into the detachment type of frozen ground. Therefore, if future air temperature rises a