“一带一路”背景下人民币汇率变动的进口价格传递效应研究

被引：112

作者：

曹伟

万谍

钱水土

金朝辉

机构：

[1] 浙江工商大学金融学院

来源：

经济研究 | 2019年 / 54卷 / 06期

基金：

浙江省自然科学基金;

关键词：

汇率传递; 进口价格; 非对称性; “一带一路”; 双重差分法(DID);

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

F832.6 [汇兑、对外金融关系];

学科分类号：

020219 [财政学（含：税收学）];

摘要：

针对"一带一路"倡议实施后各省(直辖市)主要贸易伙伴的动态变化,本文构建了省际进口加权有效汇率指数,基于汇率传递非对称性效应理论机制,运用面板数据研究了人民币汇率传递的非对称性效应和省际异质性,并采用双重差分法(DID)考察了"一带一路"倡议对进口汇率传递效应的影响。研究发现:(1)各省人民币汇率传递效应存在明显的异质性和非对称性,经济越发达的省份,汇率传递效应越低,人民币升值较贬值对大部分省份进口价格传递效应更大。(2)各省资本密集型产品的进口占比越大,则人民币贬值促使进口价格上升的幅度越大。(3)"一带一路"倡议整体上提升了中国在进口市场中的国际定价权,特别是对于劳动密集型产品的进口,中国的定价权大幅提高。论文的政策含义在于:一是中国进口贸易政策的制定,需要考虑省际汇率传递效应存在的异质性;二是中国需要大力发展自"一带一路"沿线国家的进口贸易,同时应加大技术创新力度以减轻对欧美市场资本密集型产品的进口依赖程度。

引用

页码：136 / 150

页数：15

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