气候变化与中国农村贫困陷阱

被引：11

作者：

周力

郑旭媛

机构：

[1] 南京农业大学经济管理学院

来源：

财经研究 | 2014年 / 40卷 / 01期

关键词：

气候变化; 中国农村贫困陷阱; 资产动态; 消费平滑;

D O I：

10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2014.01.001

中图分类号：

F320 [方针政策及其阐述]; F224 [经济数学方法]; P467 [气候变化、历史气候];

学科分类号：

0701 ; 070104 ;

摘要：

文章基于1989-2009年CHNS数据库中的农户平衡面板数据,实证分析了气候变化对中国农户资产动态的影响,并对比分析了"最贫困户"、"中等富裕户"与"最富裕户"的反应差异。结果表明:(1)中国农村并不存在基于多点均衡的贫困陷阱,而是多数农户都趋同于一个单一的长期福利均衡点。中国农户的资产增长趋势符合俱乐部效应中的"绝对β-收敛"(而非"条件β-收敛"),人均资产水平在不同群体之间呈现均等化趋势。(2)农户投资对气温上升和旱灾增加的反应并不敏感,而对降雨减少却反应明显。当降雨减少时,"最贫困户"采取风险规避行为,其倾向于变卖消费型资产以平滑生产型与固定型资产;"中等富裕户"采取风险应对行为,其倾向于增加生产型与固定型资产投资;"最富裕户"则对降雨减少的反应不敏感,各类资产变化不明显。

引用

页码：62 / 72

页数：11

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