CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估

被引：84

作者：

胡芩 ^{[1
,2
]}

姜大膀 ^{[1
,3
]}

范广洲 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心

[2] 成都信息工程学院

[3] 中国科学院气候变化研究中心

来源：

大气科学 | 2014年 / 38卷 / 05期

关键词：

CMIP5模式; 青藏高原; 评估;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P462 [气候类型];

学科分类号：

摘要：

青藏高原是气候变化的敏感和脆弱区,全球气候模式对于这一地区气候态的模拟能力如何尚不清楚。为此,本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的历史模拟试验数据,评估了44个全球气候模式对1986～2005年青藏高原地区地表气温和降水两个基本气象要素的模拟能力。结果表明,CMIP5模式低估了青藏高原地区年和季节平均地表气温,年均平均偏低2.3°C,秋季和冬季冷偏差相对更大;模式可较好地模拟年和季节平均地表气温分布型,但模拟的空间变率总体偏大;地形效应校正能够有效订正地表气温结果。CMIP5模式对青藏高原地区降水模拟能力较差。尽管它们能够模拟出年均降水自西北向东南渐增的分布型,但模拟的年和季节降水量普遍偏大,年均降水平均偏多1.3 mm d-1,这主要是源于春季和夏季降水被高估。同时,模式模拟的年和季节降水空间变率也普遍大于观测值,尤其表现在春季和冬季。相比较而言,44个模式集合平均性能总体上要优于大多数单个模式;等权重集合平均方案要优于中位数平均;对择优挑选的模式进行集合平均能够提高总体的模拟能力,其中对降水模拟的改进更为显著。

引用

页码：924 / 938

页数：15

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