基于PDL模型的城市化水平预测

In the previous research,when the economic factor forecasting solution of Urbanization was used into practice,the users almost always ignored the effects of the lagged economic development factors.The accuracy of the forecasting should be decreased seriously by this way.In this paper,taking Gansu province as an example,the authors try to improve the forecasting accuracy on the basis of the unrestricted PDL(Polynomial Distributed Lag)Models.In the context,the ARIMA Models and CPPS software are also applied to finish the forecasting more accurately.