多灾种耦合综合风险评估方法在城市用地规划中的应用

被引：19

作者：

卢颖 ^{[1
]}

郭良杰 ^{[1
]}

侯云玥 ^{[1
]}

赵云胜 ^{[1
]}

陈连进 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 中国地质大学工程学院

[2] 泉州市城乡规划局

来源：

浙江大学学报(工学版) | 2015年 / 49卷 / 03期

关键词：

多灾种; 风险评估; 耦合; 城市用地规划; 地理信息系统;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TU984.116 [];

学科分类号：

081405 ; 0837 ;

摘要：

为了解决当前多灾种综合风险评估中存在的忽略灾害间相互作用、对城市用地规划指导不足的问题,提出针对城市用地规划的多灾种耦合风险评估方法.通过指标权重法对地震、地面沉降、滑坡、崩塌、暴雨、海水入侵以及海岸侵蚀7种灾害进行潜在危险性分级,确定各灾种的初始危险性指数,绘制初始图件;建立耦合模型对存在相互作用的灾种的初始危险指数进行修正,得到耦合后的危险性图件;通过风险矩阵法将耦合后的多灾种危险性与城市规划用地易损性相结合,得到综合风险图.应用结果表明:采用该方法提高了多灾种耦合危险性评估的合理性,能够反映不同用地类型下多灾种风险的差异性和相似性,有助于决策者和规划者快速识别规划用地的综合风险.

引用

页码：538 / 546

页数：9

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