蒙特卡罗模拟在区域地震滑坡灾害评价中应用

被引：5

作者：

汪华斌 ^{[1
]}

Sassa Kyoji ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院

[2] 京都大学防灾研究所

来源：

岩土力学 | 2007年 / 12期

关键词：

地震滑坡; Newmark滑动体位移模型; 蒙特卡罗随机模拟; 概率分析;

D O I：

10.16285/j.rsm.2007.12.005

中图分类号：

P642.22 [滑坡]; P315.9 [工程地震];

学科分类号：

0837 ; 070801 ;

摘要：

2004年10月23日,日本新泻中越地区发生史上最强地震之一,震级达到Mw6.6。这次地震诱发上千个规模大小不一、形式各样的滑坡,造成一定的灾害损失和人员伤亡。因此,为了有效地避免和减轻这方面的灾害,有必要有效地、科学地预测和评价地震诱发滑坡的空间发生规律。为此以一定的地区作为研究对象,提出了蒙特卡罗随机模拟和Newmark滑动体位移分析法在区域地震斜坡失稳概率分析中的应用。该法充分考虑到岩土参数和相关地震参数空间变异性,结合地理信息系统空间分析的优势,以网格模型为基础,分析该区斜坡滑动体位移分布规律,并以2cm为失稳临界值探讨网格斜坡破坏的概率。实例证明,所提出的模型有效地预测了滑坡发生的空间分布规律。

引用

页码：2565 / 2569

页数：5

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