东盟步出泥潭

ASEAN’s took an apparent turn for the better in its regional situation in 1999, having gradually extricated itself from the plight at home and abroad since the financial crisis. The situation’s major characteristics are: (1) the whole political situation tended to be stable, while the social hidden-troubles were brewing latently; (2) although its economy was in a process of quick revival, it still had a lot of problems and obstacles; (3) as an organization, ASEAN got substantialized in spite of its weakening cohesion; (4) as ASEAN’s “East Asian diplomacy” obtained a breakthrough, its international status continued to decrease. In 2000, ASEAN will enter a new stage of development and is expected to further restore its vigour in keeping the region’s tranquillity on the whole. Its tend was as follows: the political situation in the whole region will keep stable rather than being faced with serious political turbulences; the member states will enter a recovery of comparative stability with a bright prospect for their economy, which is expected to increase by 4.4%, but will find it difficult to rise up to the pre-crisis level; the new issues concerning “big ASEAN”, such as strengthening cohesion, revising the organization’s principle and enhancing its capability of coordination in dealing with the crisis, etc, will become emergent; along with the tendency of its “East-oriented” diplomacy being furthered, the comprehensive cooperation in East Asia will proceed ahead in a bigger stride.