京津冀与长三角城市群碳排放的空间聚集效应比较

被引：20

作者：

陈操操

蔡博峰

孙粉

丁都

于凤菊

杨晓燕

王立波

贾秋淼

庄云鹏

胡永锋

王金南

机构：

[1] 北京市应对气候变化研究中心

[2] 环境保护部环境规划院

来源：

中国环境科学 | 2017年 / 37卷 / 11期

基金：

北京市自然科学基金;

关键词：

城市群; 聚集效应; 空间模型; 影响因素;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

X321 [区域环境规划与管理];

学科分类号：

083305 ; 1204 ;

摘要：

基于中国高空间分辨率碳排放网格数据(CHRED),采用探索性空间分析手段(ESDA)和空间回归模型分析京津冀和长三角城市群碳排放指标空间格局和聚集特点,通过显著性检验选择空间滞后回归(SLM)和空间误差回归(SEM)方法,揭示城市群碳排放水平的影响因素.结果表明,京津冀城市群碳排放在空间上表现出更多的随机性和结构不稳定性,Moran自相关系数为-0.131;长三角城市群碳排放在空间上表现聚集趋势明显,Moran自相关系数0.106,二氧化碳排放受到临近区域的影响.人口和经济因素是京津冀城市群和长三角城市群碳排放的最主要驱动因素.总体上长三角地区碳排放总体扩散效应显著,而京津冀城市群极化效应更明显.区域发展的多中心化是大城市病治理的重要导向,同时要注意对区域碳排放溢出热点进行控制,促进城市群一体化和低碳化发展,实现区域碳平衡.

引用

页码：4371 / 4379

页数：9

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