渭河流域干旱特征联合概率分布研究

被引：7

作者：

马明卫

宋松柏

于艺

张雨

李扬

机构：

[1] 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院

来源：

水力发电学报 | 2012年 / 31卷 / 06期

关键词：

水文学; 干旱特征; 联合分布; Gaussian copula; Studentt copula; 空间分析;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P333.9 [计算技术在水文计算中的应用];

学科分类号：

摘要：

应用椭圆copulas描述干旱多变量间的相依性结构。采用Pearson'sγn、Spearman'sρn、Kendall'sτn、秩相关图、Chi-plot和K-plot度量2变量相依性;根据极大似然法估计3维copulas的参数,并以AIC、BIC和RMSE进行copulas拟合效果评价;运用基于Rosenblatt变换的Bootstrap法进行Gaussian copula和Student t copula的拟合度检验;选择Gaussiancopula描述干旱历时D、烈度S、和峰值P的联合概率分布,探讨渭河流域干旱重现期的空间分布规律。研究表明:①3维Gaussian copula和Student t copula均适合用来描述干旱多变量联合概率分布,且前者拟合效果优于后者;②渭河流域发生较长时期持续干旱的频率高、重现期短,应加强干旱预报与管理。

引用

页码：28 / 34

页数：7

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