THEEFFECTSOFBOGUSTYPHOONANDOBSERVEDOCEANICDATAONTHEABILITYOFT213L31TOPREDICTTCTRACK

The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large. The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area. The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field.