1961-2005年水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响(英文)

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area,the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station(Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations.Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method.The referenced period(1961-1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period(1981-2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method,mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique.Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model,impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s,the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970.(2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities.(3) During 1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005 and 1981-2005,the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108,0.28×108,1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%,7.13%,40.71% and 23.79% accordingly.Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.