China as a Global Manufacturing Powerhouse:Strategic Considerations and Structural Adjustment

<正> This study examines the nature and consequences of China's rise to the center of worldeconomic affairs through manufacturing-led development.Our historical analysis showsthat China is still well short of the point in its developmental process where its growth mightbe reasonably expected to slow, or the energy, resource and carbon intensity of growth torecede.The study argues that the current trajectory of industrialization will have to bealtered when China becomes more actively engaged in dealing with structural issues athome and abroad against the background of the unwinding of global imbalances.Oneprofitable strategy that China might employ would be to approximate the incredibly fruitfulmass-market integration efforts of the USA that eventually elevated it to its position of globalprimacy.The cyclical re-emergence of excess capacity in Chinese heavy industry, seriousquestions about the medium term ability of other major regions to accommodate furtherlarge gains in Chinese market share, and the stark conflict between the contemporary styleof industrial development and the health of the biosphere indicate strongly that now is thetime to catalyze the required adjustment and reform processes that will underpin sustainablelong-run prosperity.