Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital

被引:32
作者
Bastien-Olvera, B. A. [1 ,2 ]
Conte, M. N. [3 ]
Dong, X. [4 ]
Briceno, T. [5 ]
Batker, D. [6 ]
Emmerling, J. [7 ]
Tavoni, M. [7 ,8 ]
Granella, F. [7 ]
Moore, F. C. [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Davis, Geog Grad Grp, Davis, CA 95616 USA
[2] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92093 USA
[3] Fordham Univ, Dept Econ, Bronx, NY USA
[4] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA
[5] Intrins Exchange Grp, Washington, DC USA
[6] Batker Consulting LLC, Tacoma, WA USA
[7] Fdn Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy
[8] Politecn Milan, Milan, Italy
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
LAND-SURFACE MODEL; VEGETATION; DISTURBANCES; VARIABILITY; ECOSYSTEMS; SHIFTS; STATES;
D O I
10.1038/s41586-023-06769-z
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];
摘要
Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses. Country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits show unequal impacts on the global values of natural capital resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover.
引用
收藏
页码:722 / 727
页数:26
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