Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence

被引:314
作者
Barsky, Robert B. [1 ,2 ]
Sims, Eric R. [3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
[2] NBER, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
[3] NBER, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
[4] Univ Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
关键词
STOCK-PRICES; RECESSION; NEWS;
D O I
10.1257/aer.102.4.1343
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
020101 [政治经济学];
摘要
Innovations to consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity far into the future. Does this reflect a causal effect of animal spirits on economic activity, or news about exogenous future productivity received by consumers? Using indirect inference, we study the impulse responses to confidence innovations in conjunction with an appropriately augmented New Keynesian model. While news, animal spirits, and pure noise all contribute to confidence innovations, the relationship between confidence and subsequent activity is almost entirely reflective of the news component. Confidence innovations are well characterized as noisy measures of changes in expected productivity growth over a relatively long horizon. (JEL D12, D83, D84, E12)
引用
收藏
页码:1343 / 1377
页数:35
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