Simulations of atmospheric dispersion following a spillage of petroleum at sea

In January 1997 7000 t of refined petrol were spilled into the English Channel following a collision in dense fog off Ostend. The following day reports of petrol odours were recorded throughout central England at distances up to 300 km from the spill site. One possibility is that mass hysteria was induced by media reports of the accident coupled with the publicised wind direction. Indeed, the simulated gas cloud trajectory does not pass over central England if the petrol is assumed to have evaporated over a period of about 3 h. However, a feasible advection path can be reproduced by assuming that the water/atmosphere exchange of vapours occurred on a time scale of 12 h, the extended evaporation being due to the formation of subsurface droplets by wave action. Evidence to support the simulated trajectory has been obtained from the UK National Air Quality Information Archive which contains hourly data for benzene and NOx concentrations. By regressing the benzene concentration against NOx which is assumed to be an indicator of traffic density, it is shown that an increase in benzene concentrations on the day following the spillage was consistent with the simulated movement of the vapour cloud. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.