An analytical model for the prediction of nocturnal and dawn surface temperatures under calm, clear sky conditions

Frost is a climatic risk which can have an important impact on agricultural production. The risk of frost damage can be minimized by means of a reliable minimum temperature prediction. This paper presents an analytical model for the prediction of nocturnal and dawn surface temperatures under calm, clear sky conditions. The model is an analytical solution of the heat transfer equations for the soil and the atmosphere, with proper boundary conditions, and includes a power law form for the eddy diffusivity for turbulent heat transfer. The results compare favorably with observational data obtained from the Wangara and Great Plains experiments. Several statistical ''measures'' indicate that the model is able to provide satisfactory estimates of surface temperature. A sensitivity analysis of the model to variations in the input parameters is also performed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.