Cost dynamics of wind power

This paper describes an analysis of the prospects of reducing the cost of wind-generated electricity. Special attention has been paid to the dynamic development of wind turbines, i.e. development based on experience gained in the production and use of wind turbines. Historical and future cost reductions associated with wind turbines are described using experience curves. The results of the analysis show that although the experience curve for wind turbines indicates relatively moderate cost reductions there is potential for considerable cost reductions in wind-generated electricity. This is due to the fact that the cost of wind-generated electricity will be affected by improved performance and reduced operating and maintenance costs, in addition to the reduction in cost of wind turbines. The results show that the average cost of wind-generated electricity will almost be reduced by half by the year 2020, assuming an annual market growth of 15-20%. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.