The impossibility of separating age, period and cohort effects

被引:121
作者
Bell, Andrew [1 ,2 ]
Jones, Kelvyn [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England
[2] Univ Bristol, Ctr Multilevel Modelling, Bristol BS8 1TX, Avon, England
关键词
Age-period-cohort models; Model identification; Collinearity; MODELS;
D O I
10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.04.029
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
100235 [预防医学];
摘要
This commentary discusses the age-period-cohort identification problem. It shows that, despite a plethora of proposed solutions in the literature, no model is able to solve the identification problem because the identification problem is inherent to the real-world processes being modelled. As such, we cast doubt on the conclusions of a number of papers, including one presented here (Page, Milner, Morrell, & Taylor, 2013). We conclude with some recommendations for those wanting to model age, period and cohort in a compelling way. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:163 / 165
页数:3
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