Predicting response to initial therapy with interferon plus ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C using serum HCV RNA results during therapy

In patients with chronic hepatitis C, 48 weeks of therapy with interferon (IFN) plus ribavirin results in a sustained virologic response of 40%. Preliminary analysis suggests that measuring HCV RNA at week 24, rather than week 12, might provide the best prediction of treatment response. To assess the clinical utility of serum HCV RNA determinations at different times during therapy as a predictor of a sustained virologic response we evaluated 912 treatment-naive patients. Patients were randomized to receive IFN-alpha 2b, 3 million units (MU) three times weekly (tiw), for 24 or 48 weeks with either ribavirin or placebo, and then followed for 24 weeks. Serum HCV RNA was measured at weeks 4 and 12 in patients treated for 24 weeks; at 4, 12, and 24 weeks during therapy in those treated for 48 weeks, and week 24 post-therapy in all patients. Sustained response was defined as loss of serum HCV RNA at week 24 follow-up. Other patients were considered virologic nonresponders. For patients receiving 48 weeks of combination therapy, detectable serum HCV RNA at week 24 predicted nonresponse (positive predictive value) in 99% of patients compared to 89% at week 12. In patients treated for 24 weeks, testing at week 12 was more predictive of nonresponse than testing at week 4 in the combination-therapy croup but not in the monotherapy group. Hence, for combination therapy, testing for serum HCV RNA as a predictor of nonresponse is most accurate at week 24 of therapy; a positive test correctly identified 99% of nonresponders.