Evaluation of the GEM-AQ air quality model during the Quebec smoke event of 2002:: Analysis of extensive and intensive optical disparities

The root-mean-square (rms) differences between the Canadian air quality model GEM-AQ and measurements for intensive and extensive optical variables (aerosol optical depth or AOD and Angstr6m exponent or a) were investigated using data from the July 2002 Quebec smoke event. In order to quantify regional differences between model and measurements we employed a three component analysis of rms differences. The behaviour of the two absolute amplitude rms components of AOD (difference of the means and the difference of the standard deviations) enabled us to infer emission properties which would otherwise have been masked by the larger 'anti-correlation' component. We found the inferred emission fluxes to be significantly higher than the original geostationary, satellite-derived FLAMBE (fire locating and modelling of burning emissions) emissions flux estimates employed as inputs to the simulations. The model captured the regional decrease of the intensive a exponent (increase of particle size with trajectory time), while the agreement with the extensive AOD parameter was marginal but clearly dependent on the nature of the spatio-temporal statistical tools employed to characterize model performance. In establishing the a versus trajectory time trend, the modelled AOD data was filtered in the same way as the measured data (very large AODs are eliminated). This processing of modelled results was deemed necessary in order to render the a results comparable with the measurements; in the latter case it was difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between measured a trends due to instrumental artifacts (non-linearities at low signal strength) versus trends due to coagulative effects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.