An Observation-Based Assessment of Nonlinear Feedback Processes Associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole

A well-known feature of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is its positive skewness, with cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the east pole (IODE) exhibiting a larger amplitude than warm SST anomalies. Several mechanisms have been proposed for this asymmetry, but because of a lack of observations the role of various processes remains contentious. Using Argo profiles and other newly available data, the authors provide an observation-based assessment of the IOD skewness. First, the role of a nonlinear dynamical heating process is reaffirmed, which reinforces IODE cold anomalies but damps IODE warm anomalies. This reinforcing effect is greater than the damping effect, further contributing to the skewness. Second, the existence of a thermocline-temperature feedback asymmetry, whereby IODE cold anomalies induced by a shoaling thermocline are greater than warm anomalies associated with a deepening thermocline, is the primary forcing of the IOD skewness. This thermocline-temperature feedback asymmetry is a part of the nonlinear Bjerknes-like positive feedback loop involving winds, SST, and the thermocline, all displaying a consistent asymmetry with a stronger response when IODE SST is anomalously cold. The asymmetry is enhanced by a nonlinear barrier layer response, with a greater thinning associated with IODE cold anomalies than a thickening associated with IODE warm anomalies. Finally, in response to IODE cool anomalies, rainfall and evaporative heat loss diminish and incoming shortwave radiation increases, which results in damping the cool SST anomalies. The damping increases with IODE cold anomalies. Thus, the IOD skewness is generated in spite of a greater damping effect of the SST-cloud-radiation feedback process.