Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

被引：1531

作者：

Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. ^{[1
]}

Liu, Patrick ^{[1
]}

Roth, Gregory A. ^{[1
]}

Ng, Marie ^{[1
]}

Biryukov, Stan ^{[1
]}

Marczak, Laurie ^{[1
]}

Alexander, Lily ^{[1
]}

Estep, Kara ^{[1
]}

Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ^{[2
]}

Akinyemiju, Tomi F. ^{[3
]}

Ali, Raghib ^{[4
]}

Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ^{[5
]}

Azzopardi, Peter ^{[6
,7
]}

Banerjee, Amitava ^{[8
]}

Baernighausen, Till ^{[9
,10
]}

Basu, Arindam ^{[11
]}

Bekele, Tolesa ^{[12
]}

Bennett, Derrick A. ^{[4
]}

Biadgilign, Sibhatu

Catala-Lopez, Ferran ^{[13
,14
,15
]}

Feigin, Valery L. ^{[16
]}

Fernandes, Joao C. ^{[17
]}

Fischer, Florian ^{[18
]}

Gebru, Alemseged Aregay ^{[19
]}

Gona, Philimon ^{[20
]}

Gupta, Rajeev ^{[21
]}

Hankey, Graeme J. ^{[22
,23
,24
]}

Jonas, Jost B. ^{[25
]}

Judd, Suzanne E. ^{[26
]}

Khang, Young-Ho ^{[27
]}

Khosravi, Ardeshir ^{[28
]}

Kim, Yun Jin ^{[29
]}

Kimokoti, Ruth W. ^{[30
]}

Kokubo, Yoshihiro ^{[31
]}

Kolte, Dhaval ^{[32
]}

Lopez, Alan ^{[33
]}

Lotufo, Paulo A. ^{[34
]}

Malekzadeh, Reza ^{[35
]}

Melaku, Yohannes Adama ^{[36
,37
]}

Mensah, George A. ^{[38
]}

Misganaw, Awoke ^{[1
]}

Mokdad, Ali H. ^{[1
]}

Moran, Andrew E. ^{[39
]}

Nawaz, Haseeb ^{[40
]}

Neal, Bruce ^{[41
,42
,43
,44
]}

Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak ^{[45
]}

Ohkubo, Takayoshi ^{[46
]}

Pourmalek, Farshad ^{[47
]}

Rafay, Anwar ^{[48
]}

Rai, Rajesh Kumar ^{[49
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[2] Jimma Univ, Jimma, Ethiopia

[3] Univ Alabama Birmingham, Dept Epidemiol, Birmingham, AL USA

[4] Univ Oxford, Oxford, England

[5] Univ Cartagena, Cartagena Indias, Colombia

[6] Ctr Adolescent Hlth, Parkville, Vic, Australia

[7] South Australian Hlth & Med Res Inst, Adelaide, SA, Australia

[8] UCL, Farr Inst Hlth Informat Res, London, England

[9] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[10] Wellcome Trust Africa Ctr Hlth & Populat Studies, Mtubatuba, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa

[11] Univ Canterbury, Sch Hlth Sci, Christchurch, New Zealand

[12] Madawalabu Univ, Bale Goba, Ethiopia

[13] Univ Valencia, INCLIVA Hlth Res Inst, Valencia, Spain

[14] CIBERSAM, Dept Med, Valencia, Spain

[15] Ottawa Hosp Res Inst, Program Epidemiol, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[16] Auckland Univ Technol, Natl Inst Stroke & Appl Neurosci, Auckland, New Zealand

[17] Univ Coimbra, Fac Med, IBILI Inst Biomed Imaging & Life Sci, Pharmacol & Expt Therapeut, Coimbra, Portugal

[18] Univ Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany

[19] Mekelle Univ, Kilte Awlaelo I Hlth & Demog Surveillance Syst, Mekelle, Ethiopia

[20] Univ Massachusetts, Boston, MA 02125 USA

[21] Eternal Heart Care Ctr, Res Inst, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

[22] Univ Western Australia, Sch Med & Pharmacol, Perth, WA, Australia

[23] Harry Perkins Inst Med Res, Nedlands, WA, Australia

[24] Western Australian Neurosci Res Inst, Nedlands, WA, Australia

[25] Heidelberg Univ, Med Fac Mannheim, Dept Ophthalmol, Mannheim, Germany

[26] Univ Alabama Birmingham, Birmingham, AL USA

[27] Seoul Natl Univ, Coll Med, Seoul, South Korea

[28] Iranian Minist Hlth & Med Educ, Tehran, Iran

[29] Southern Univ Coll, Johor Baharu, Malaysia

[30] Simmons Coll, Boston, MA USA

[31] Natl Cerebral & Cardiovasc Ctr, Dept Prevent Cardiol, Suita, Osaka, Japan

[32] Brown Univ, Rhode Isl Hosp, Providence, RI 02912 USA

[33] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Populat & Global Hlth, Melbourne, QLD, Australia

[34] Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[35] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Digest Dis Res Inst, Tehran, Iran

[36] Mekelle Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Mekelle, Ethiopia

[37] Univ Adelaide, Sch Med, Adelaide, SA, Australia

[38] NHLBI, NIH, Ctr Translat Res & Implementat Sci, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[39] Columbia Univ, New York, NY USA

[40] Southern Illinois Univ, Springfield, IL USA

[41] George Inst Global Hlth, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[42] Univ Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[43] Royal Prince Alfred Hosp, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[44] Imperial Coll London, London, England

[45] Minist Hlth & Social Welf, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

[46] Teikyo Univ, Sch Med, Tokyo, Japan

[47] Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[48] Contech Sch Publ Hlth, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan

[49] Soc Hlth & Demog Surveillance, Suri, India

[50] ISGlobal, Ctr Res Environm Epidemiol CREAL, Barcelona, Spain

来源：

JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION | 2017年 / 317卷 / 02期

关键词：

CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE; RISK-FACTORS; CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE; ARTERIAL STIFFNESS; KIDNEY-DISEASE; AGE; MORTALITY; PROGRESSION; PREVALENCE; DECLINE;

D O I：

10.1001/jama.2016.19043

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

IMPORTANCE Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. DESIGN A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (>110-115mmHg and also >= 140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. RESULTS Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20526 (95% UI, 20283-20746) per 100000. The estimated annual death rate per 100000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). Loss of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 148 million (95% UI, 134-162 million) to 211 million (95% UI, 193-231 million), and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deathswere caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (>= 110-115 and >= 140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher. Copyright 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：165 / 182

页数：18

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