Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

被引：35

作者：

Chalmers, N. ^{[1
,2
]}

Highwood, E. J. ^{[1
]}

Hawkins, E. ^{[1
,2
]}

Sutton, R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Wilcox, L. J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England

[2] Univ Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2012年 / 39卷

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

Climate models - Sulfur compounds - Climate change - Greenhouse gases;

D O I：

10.1029/2012GL052848

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10 Wm(-2) develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate. Citation: Chalmers, N., E. J. Highwood, E. Hawkins, R. Sutton, and L. J. Wilcox (2012), Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39 L18709, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052848.

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