Developing a methodology for benefit transfers using geographical information systems: Modelling demand for woodland recreation

This paper develops a methodology for implementing benefit transfers through the medium of a geographical information system. Data from a survey of visitors to a woodland site in eastern England were used to estimate an arrivals function which was then utilized to predict visits to other locations. The validity of this function was tested against actual arrivals at locations in Wales and was found to be a satisfactory estimator of visits. This function was then used to generate predictions of visitor arrivals across Wales to simulate the impact of sites being converted into woodland. The visitor demand map generated by this analysis was then converted to a monetary equivalent using values derived from a cross-study analysis of the existing UK literature on the value of recreational visits to woodland. This final map provides a useful aid to optimal implementation of policies such as the Community Woodland Scheme which aims to target subsidies according to local demand. The paper concludes by highlighting limitations of the analysis and outlining possible extensions.