Predicting the incidence of mohua predation from the seedfall, mouse, and predator fluctuations in beech forests

Predator control will be required to save many mohua (Mohoua ochrocephala) populations from extinction. However, control may be required only in years when stoat (Mustela erminea) densities are high. To manage local stoat populations effectively, a reliable predictor of high risk years is required. We examined whether different levels of beech seedfall and mouse capture rates were related to the levels of mohua predation recorded in the Hawdon Valley, Arthur's Pass National Park, and the Eglinton Valley, Fiordland National Park, between 1989 and 1994. During this period there was only one full beech mast year in each study area during autumn. The full mast seedfall in Hawdon Valley was predominantly of mountain beech (Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides) and red beech (N. fusca), and in Eglinton Valley it was predominantly silver beech (N. menziesii). During the following summer, mouse and stoat densities, and the predation rate of adult mohua, all increased considerably. There was very little predation on adult mohua in the summers following poor seedfalls when mouse and predator densities remained low. In 1993, a partial mast did not trigger a mouse or stoat irruption. We conclude that counts of beech seedfall and indices of mouse density are potential predictors of an impending irruption of key predators. Winter mouse density appeared to be the most reliable indicator, because neither stoats nor mice respond to seedfall alone. A combination of these indicators could be used as a basis for management decisions on whether to undertake stoat control to protect mohua populations in the future. However, more information is required on the seedfall thresholds that may trigger sufficient increases in mouse and stoat numbers and, consequently, bird predation.