MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems

被引：82

作者：

Zappa, Massimiliano ^{[1
]}

Rotach, Mathias W. ^{[2
]}

Arpagaus, Marco ^{[2
]}

Dorninger, Manfred ^{[3
]}

Hegg, Christoph ^{[1
]}

Montani, Andrea ^{[4
]}

Ranzi, Roberto ^{[5
]}

Ament, Felix ^{[2
]}

Germann, Urs ^{[2
]}

Grossi, Giovanna ^{[5
]}

Jaun, Simon ^{[6
]}

Rossa, Andrea ^{[2
,7
]}

Vogt, Stephan ^{[8
]}

Walser, Andre

Wehrhan, Johannes ^{[9
]}

Wunram, Claudia ^{[10
]}

机构：

[1] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[2] MeteoSwiss, Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol, Zurich, Switzerland

[3] Univ Vienna, Dept Meteorol & Geophys, A-1010 Vienna, Austria

[4] ARPA SIM, Bologna, Italy

[5] Univ Brescia, DICATA, I-25121 Brescia, Italy

[6] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[7] ARPA Veneto, Teolo, Italy

[8] Fed Off Environm FOEN, Ittigen, Switzerland

[9] Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany

[10] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2008年 / 9卷 / 02期

关键词：

MAP D-PHASE; ensemble prediction systems; flood; heavy precipitation;

D O I：

10.1002/asl.183

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

Mesoscale Alpine Programme Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of Flood Events (MAP D-PHASE) is a forecast demonstration project aiming at demonstrating recent improvements in the operational use of end-to-end forecasting system consisting of atmospheric models, hydrological prediction systems, nowcasting tools and warnings for end-users. Both deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) have been implemented for the European Alps (atmospheric models) and a selection of mesoscale river basins (hydrological models) in Central Europe. A first insight into MAP D-PHASE with focus on operational ensemble hydrological simulations is presented here. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

引用

页码：80 / 87

页数：8

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