Stochastic flow analysis for predicting river scour of cohesive soils

Damage to bridge crossings during flood events endangers the lives of the traveling public and causes costly disruptions to traffic flow. The most common causes of bridge collapse are scouring of the streambed and banks and erosion of highway embankments. This study couples a synthetic river flow simulation technique with a scour model for cohesive soils and determines the expected scour depth for a given lifetime of the bridge. A fractionally differenced autoregressive integrated moving average model generates synthetic streamflow sequences of the same length as the expected lifetime of the bridge. The scour model predicts the progression of scour depth through time in a multilayered soil. The model is used to determine the scour depth associated with different replicates of the synthetic flow sequences of the same length as the lifetime of the bridge. The probability distribution of scour depth is estimated by repeating this simulation procedure over a number of independent realizations of streamflow series for a given life of the bridge. This approach provides a framework for the probabilistic design and risk analysis of bridge foundations subjected to scour.