Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact

被引：417

作者：

Wang, Dashun ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Song, Chaoming ^{[1
,2
,4
]}

Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo ^{[1
,2
,5
,6
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Northeastern Univ, Dept Biol, Dept Phys, Ctr Complex Network Res, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Northeastern Univ, Dept Comp Sci, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[3] IBM Thomas J Watson Res Ctr, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USA

[4] Univ Miami, Dept Phys, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA

[5] Dana Farber Canc Inst, Ctr Canc Syst Biol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[6] Harvard Univ, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Sch Med, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[7] Cent European Univ, Ctr Network Sci, Budapest, Hungary

来源：

SCIENCE | 2013年 / 342卷 / 6154期

关键词：

JOURNALS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1237825

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.

引用

页码：127 / 132

页数：6

共 30 条

[1] Predicting scientific success [J].

Acuna, Daniel E. ;

Allesina, Stefano ;

Kording, Konrad P. .

NATURE, 2012, 489 (7415) :201-202

[2] JBRA Assisted Reproduction - The scientific journal and the impact factor: metric and non-metric challenges for the editorial board [J].

de Souza, Maria do Carmo Borges ;

Taitson, Paulo Franco ;

Oliveira, Joao Batista Alcantara .

JORNAL BRASILEIRO DE REPRODUCAO ASSISTIDA, 2024, 28 (01)

[3]

[Anonymous], 2007, Scale-Free Networks: Complex Webs in Nature and Technology

[4] Emergence of scaling in random networks [J].

Barabási, AL ;

Albert, R .

SCIENCE, 1999, 286 (5439) :509-512

[5] Handful of papers dominates citation [J].

Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo ;

Song, Chaoming ;

Wang, Dashun .

NATURE, 2012, 491 (7422) :40-40

[6]

Bass F. M., 2004, Management Science, V50, P1833, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0300

[7] Competition and multiscaling in evolving networks [J].

Bianconi, G ;

Barabási, AL .

EUROPHYSICS LETTERS, 2001, 54 (04) :436-442

[8] Scale-free networks from varying vertex intrinsic fitness -: art. no. 258702 [J].

Caldarelli, G ;

Capocci, A ;

De Los Rios, P ;

Muñoz, MA .

PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS, 2002, 89 (25)

[9] Evolution of networks [J].

Dorogovtsev, SN ;

Mendes, JFF .

ADVANCES IN PHYSICS, 2002, 51 (04) :1079-1187

[10] Theory and practise of the g-index [J].

Egghe, Leo .

SCIENTOMETRICS, 2006, 69 (01) :131-152

← 1 2 3 →