Trends in total phosphorus in Canadian near-shore waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes: 1976-1999

Beginning as early as 1976 at many locations, total phosphorus concentrations (TP) were measured weekly in samples collected year-round in the intake water of 18 municipal water treatment plants in Canadian (Ontario) waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes. No consistent long-term trends were evident at two north-shore Lake Superior sampling locations, but there were significant long-term declines in TP measured at all three Lake Huron locations; however, concentrations there hai,e remained relatively constant during the past decade. Declines in TP averaging about I mug/L/yr during 1976 to 1990 were prevalent at lower Great Lakes sampling locations and by the early 1990s TP had declined to 15-25 mug/L in Lake Erie and 10-20 mug/L in Lake Ontario. Declines generally levelled out in Lake Ontario after 1990, but TP increased substantially at some Lake Erie locations in the late 1990s. Recent (1996 to 1999) total phosphorus concentrations in north-shore Lake Erie locations in the range of 20 to 30 mug/L were 2 to 3 times higher than at Lake Ontario near-shore locations in the 8 to 11 mug/L range. Rates of decline of TP were generally highest for the March-April period (-1.88, -1.61, and -1.34 mug/L/yr in Lakes Ontario, Erie, and Huron, respectively for 1976 to 1990). The March-April Lake Ontario near-shore rate of TP decline was nearly twice as high as that reported previously for off-shore Lake Ontario (attributed to proximity to P loading sources and to lower net sedimentation losses of P in the near-shore environment). There were substantial declines in chlorophyll-to-TP ratios and in the slopes and Y-intercepts of chlorophyll-TP regressions for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario following the establishment of dreissenid mussels.