A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change

被引:148
作者
Liu, Junguo [1 ]
Fritz, Steffen [2 ]
van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A. [3 ]
Fuchs, Michael [4 ]
You, Liangzhi [5 ]
Obersteiner, Michael [2 ]
Yang, Hong [1 ]
机构
[1] Eawag, Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland
[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
[3] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Ctr World Food Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
[4] Bundesanstalt Geowissensch & Rohstoffe, D-30655 Hannover, Germany
[5] IFPRI, Washington, DC 20006 USA
关键词
climate change; crop production; undernutrition; GEPIC; MDGs;
D O I
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.007
中图分类号
P9 [自然地理学];
学科分类号
0705 ; 070501 ;
摘要
Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania. Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:222 / 235
页数:14
相关论文
共 41 条
[1]   Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change [J].
Adejuwon, James O. .
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2006, 32 (03) :229-245
[2]  
[Anonymous], END HUNG AFR PROSP S
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2002, The Role of Rainfed Agriculture in the Future of Global Food Production (No. 90)
[4]  
[Anonymous], 2006, Food Security Statistics
[5]  
[Anonymous], HALV HUNG IT CAN BE
[6]  
Batjes N.H., 2006, ISRIC-WISE derived soil properties on a 5 by 5 arc-minutes global grid (version 1.0)
[7]   Climate - Food security under climate change [J].
Brown, Molly E. ;
Funk, Christopher C. .
SCIENCE, 2008, 319 (5863) :580-581
[8]   Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change [J].
Challinor, Andrew ;
Wheeler, Tim ;
Garforth, Chris ;
Craufurd, Peter ;
Kassam, Amir .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2007, 83 (03) :381-399
[9]  
*DHS, 2006, DEM HLTH SURV MEAS D
[10]  
*FAO, 2006, FAOSTAT FAO STAT DAT