Residential Electrical Load Model Based on Mixture Model Clustering and Markov Models

Detailed large-scale simulations require a lot of data. Residential electrical load profiles are well protected by privacy laws. Representative residential electrical load generators get around the privacy problem and allow for Monte Carlo simulations. A top-down model of the residential electrical load, based on a dataset of over 1300 load profiles, is presented in this paper. The load profiles are clustered by a Mixed Model to group similar ones. Within the group, a behavior model is constructed with a Markov model. The states of the Markov models are based on the probability distribution of the electrical power. A second Markov model is created to randomize the behavior. A load profile is created by first performing a random-walking of the Markov models to get a sequence of states. The inverse of the probability distribution of the electrical power is used to translate the resulting states into electrical power.