Impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Western Pacific (WP) pattern in the following winter through Arctic sea ice and ENSO: part I-observational evidence

On the basis of a 51-year statistical analysis of reanalysis data, we propose for the first time that the positive phase of the Western Pacific (WP) pattern in the winter is linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the previous winter, and vice versa. We show that there are two possible mechanisms responsible for this interannual remote linkage. One is an Arctic mechanism. Extensive Arctic sea ice in the summer after a negative NAO acts as a bridge to the positive phase of the WP in the next winter. The other mechanism involves the tropics. An El Nio occurrence after a negative winter NAO acts as another bridge to the positive phase of the WP in the following winter. The timescale of the Arctic route is nearly decadal, whereas that of the tropical route is about 3-5 years. The tropical mechanism indicates that the NAO remotely excites an El Nio in the second half of the following year. A process perhaps responsible for the El Nio occurrence was investigated statistically. A negative NAO in the winter increases Eurasian snow cover. This anomalous snow cover then intensifies the cold air outbreak from Asia to the western tropical Pacific. This outbreak can intensify the westerly wind burst and excite El Nio in the following year. We suggest that the phase of the NAO in the winter could be a predictor of the WP in the following year.