Hybrid chaos search genetic algorithm and meta-heuristics method for short-term load forecasting

A hybrid chaos search genetic algorithm (CGA) /fuzzy system (FS), simulated annealing (SA) and neural fuzzy network (NFN) method for load forecasting is presented in this paper. A fuzzy hyper-rectangular composite neural networks (FHRCNNs) was used for the initial load forecasting. Then, we used CGAFS and SA to find the optimal solution of the parameters of the FHRCNNs, instead of back-propagation (BP) (including parameters such as synaptic weights, biases, membership functions, sensitivity factor in membership functions and adjustable synaptic weights). First, the CGAFS generates a set of feasible solution parameters and then puts the solution into the SA. The CGAFS has good global optimal search capabilities, but poor local optimal search capabilities. The SA method on the other hand has good local optimal search capabilities. We combined both methods to try and obtain both advantages, and in doing so eliminate the drawback of the traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) training by BP (where the weights and biases are always trapped into a local optimum, which then leads the solution to sub-optimization). Finally, we used the CGAFS and SA combined with NFN (CGAFSSA-NFN) to see if we could improve the quality of the solution, and if we actually could reduce the error of load forecasting. The proposed CGAFSSA-NFN load forecasting scheme was tested using the data obtained from a sample study, including 1 year, 1 week and 24-h time periods. The proposed scheme was then compared with ANN, evolutionary programming combined with ANN (EP-ANN), genetic algorithm combined with ANN (GA-ANN), and CGAFSSA-NFN. The results demonstrated the accuracy of the proposed load-forecasting scheme.