Prognostic factors predicting survival from first recurrence in patients with metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 439 patients

We have analyzed retrospectively 439 women with recurrent breast cancer, followed at a single institution, in order to define potential prognostic factors for survival at the time of first recurrence. Median age at the time of first recurrence was 58 and the median disease free interval (DFI) from initial diagnoses to recurrence was 33 months. Thirteen percent of the patients did not receive any adjuvant therapy while 87% received different combinations of chemotherapy, radiotherapy and hormone therapy as adjuvant treatment. With a median follow-up of 44 months from the time of recurrence the median survival (MSR) was 24 months (SE 1.24) and five-year overall survival was 18% (SE 2.02). On the univariate analysis, pathological tumor size (pT) at diagnosis (p < 0.0006), axillary lymph node status at diagnosis (p < 0.00001), negative estrogen receptor (ER) status (p < 0.0001), negative progesterone receptor (PgR) status (p < 0.0001), adjuvant chemotherapy (p < 0.001), disease free interval (p < 0.00001), location of recurrence (p < 0.0002) and number of metastatic sites (greater than or equal to 3: p, less than or equal to 0.0003), were significantly associated with shorter survival from first relapse. On the multivariate analysis, only the site of recurrence, axillary lymph node status at diagnosis, ER status and DFI remained independently associated with decreased MSR after first relapse.