A statistical-dynamical method for predicting long term coastal evolution

被引：33

作者：

Reeve, DE

Fleming, CA

机构：

[1] Sir William Halcrow and Ptnrs. Ltd., Swindon

来源：

COASTAL ENGINEERING | 1997年 / 30卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

mathematical modelling; morphology; long term prediction;

D O I：

10.1016/S0378-3839(96)00048-8

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

A new approach to the problem of predicting long term coastline evolution is described, The cumulative effect of shoreline processes is inferred by inverting an extended form of one-line equation. Results from the inversion process are then used to predict future coastal evolution on the basis of past historical changes. The data required are charts showing the historical changes in coastline position. By way of validation, the model is applied io a region on the east coast of the United Kingdom where a 12 year forecast is made and compared against recent aerial survey data. The results are encouraging and suggest that the method has a predictive capability, suitable for strategic studies of regional shoreline evolution.

引用

页码：259 / 280

页数：22

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